VIKINGS 101

As we discussed at length yesterday, the Minnesota Vikings find themselves in unfamiliar territory selecting third overall in the upcoming NFL Draft. As always, there's been loads of speculation surrounding who the Vikes will take with their top pick. At this early stage, most mock drafts have GM Rick Spielman taking an offensive tackle at No. 3, namely USC's Matt Kalil. But with the future of the franchise likely riding on his decision, let's take a look at the top-five picks in the last 15 years to try to determine which, if any, positions have the highest success rate and the lowest bust rate.

First, I should point out  the criteria for determining whether a player should be deemed a boom or bust. Since each player was taken with a premium pick, to avoid being named a bust, the player must have: started for at least four seasons (excluding players drafted in last four years), made at least one Pro Bowl and helped the team's overall performance. With players drafted in the last three years, a lot of which category they were placed in is based on their production to date and their projected success (i.e. Sam Bradford, AJ Green, etc.)

As you might expect, quarterbacks have the largest sample size with a whopping 19 players at the position taken since 1997. On the flipside, there have been no guards, centers or tight ends taken in the top-five, and just two safeties (Sean Taylor, Eric Berry) and one middle linebacker (AJ Hawk).

Every position group but two came out with a failing grade, meaning an equal amount or more busts than successes.

The position with the highest bust potential, both in the number of players that didn't work out and just how poorly they fared, is defensive tackle. Of the seven DTs taken, five were busts (Gerald McCoy, Glenn Dorsey, DeWayne Robertson, Gerard Warren and Darrell Russell) while just two were booms (Ndamukong Suh, Marcel Dareus). Some of you might argue that Russell, having made two Pro Bowls, can't be considered a bust. But when you get a lifetime ban for repeatedly breaking the NFL's substance abuse policy, you belong in the bust column.

Surprisingly, the position with the next highest bust potential (by percentages) is offensive tackle, a position generally deemed the "safe" choice early in the draft. Six of the 11 tackles taken since '97 in the first five spots have been busts. That list includes Trent Williams, Jason Smith, Levi Brown, Robert Gallery, Mike Williams (Bills) and Leonard Davis. It's worth noting that Gallery and Davis have extended their careers and been successful by moving to guard, but when you're spending a premium pick on an offensive lineman, an above-average guard has got to be considered a bust.

The numbers show that picking a defensive end, outside linebacker or cornerback in the top-five is a 50-50 proposition. For every Julius Peppers, there's a Courtney Brown. For every Von Miller, there's an Aaron Curry. And for every Charles Woodson, there's a Bryant Westbrook.

That means that, despite all the talk of "skill position" players being overvalued, they actually have the highest success rate.

Running backs, often thought of as reaches this high in the draft, have actually had a decent track record. Darren McFadden, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams all had successful NFL careers, while guys like Cedric Benson, Reggie Bush and Ronnie Brown have had their ups and downs. Only Cadillac Williams and Curtis Enis can be considered complete busts.

A lot of people think drafting a wide receiver this high can be an ultra-risky proposition, but there have been more booms (AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald) than busts (Braylon Edwards, Charles Rogers, Peter Warrick) at the position.

As we already mentioned, there have been 19 quarterbacks taken in the top-five in the last 15 years, including the top three picks of 1999. Of those 19 players, 10 have become stars: Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning. Eight have been flat-out busts: Mark Sanchez, Jamarcus Russell, Vince Young, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Tom Couch, Akili Smith and Ryan Leaf. The jury is still out on Alex Smith, the No. 1 overall pick in 2005, after he struggled through the first six years of his career before having a stellar 2011 season under new coach Jim Harbaugh.

So by now, you're probably thinking that every position is, at best, a little better than a coin flip. But that's not true. There is one position that has been a can't-miss in the last 15 years: Safety. The sample size is small (two), but both Sean Taylor and Eric Berry showed flashes of dominance before tragedy struck. Berry famously tore his ACL at the beginning of this season, knocking him out for the year while Taylor died tragically after burglars broke into his house and shot him in 2007.

So what does this mean for the Vikings? Maybe they should take a deeper look at Alabama's Mark Barron, the top safety in the draft. That was a joke, in case you didn't know. What it does mean is that the team might actually be safer taking a guy like Oklahoma State's Justin Blackmon or Baylor's Robert Griffin III than the presumed "safe" pick of USC's Matt Kalil.

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